Polymarket 2024 U.S. presidential election prices (hourly)

Hourly prices of the Polymarket contract "Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US presidential election?" (the "Yes" outcome token), June to November 2024, downloaded from the public CLOB API with pm_prices(). The claim price is the U.S.-dollar-numeraire event state price — the state-price-implied event probability up to discounting. This dataset powers the intraday examples; rebuild it any time with the script in data-raw/.

Usage

polymarket2024

Format

A tibble with hourly rows and 2 columns:

time: Timestamp (POSIXct, UTC).
q: Traded probability of the "Yes" outcome.

Source

Polymarket public CLOB API, https://clob.polymarket.com/prices-history, event presidential-election-winner-2024.

Examples

data(polymarket2024)
ep <- as_event_prices(polymarket2024,
  market_id = "Polymarket: Trump wins 2024",
  event_date = as.POSIXct("2024-11-05", tz = "UTC")
)
plot_clock(event_clock_path(ep))