Rule of thumb for the amount of event-clock time required for the
market to move from its current probability q to a target probability
target (conditional on the corresponding outcome):
\(A^* \approx 2(\mathrm{logit}\, x^* - L)\).
Usage
ec_target_clock(q, target)
Arguments
- q
Numeric vector of current event probabilities in \((0,1)\).
- target
Numeric vector of target probabilities in \((0,1)\).
Value
Numeric vector \(A^*\).
Examples
# from 19.5% to "90% sure": A* is about 7.2 -- roughly 40 times the
# clock time measured over the final two pre-referendum weeks (0.166)
ec_target_clock(q = 0.195, target = 0.9)
#> [1] 7.230135
