Folded-normal approximation of the expected absolute revision of the
event probability until resolution:
\(E|q_T - q| \approx q(1-q)\sqrt{2A/\pi}\).
Arguments
- q
Numeric vector of current event probabilities in \((0,1)\).
- A
Numeric vector of event-clock time (non-negative).
Examples
# Brexit two weeks out: about 5 probability points
ec_revision(0.195, 0.166)
#> [1] 0.05102989
