Annual Meeting of the European Public Choice Society 2019 (Jerusalem, Israel)
We examine the effect of global macroeconomic uncertainty on economic activity, with the magnitude of the impact depending on the current state of the banking sector.
We combine stock prices with data from political betting markets in order to assess individual stock price sensitivity to potential election outcomes. Selecting stocks before the elections based on this sensitivity, we build portfolios that generate large positive returns after the election date conditional on the election outcome.
We examine the effect of populism on financial markets around national elections.
The purpose of this paper is to create a universal (asset-class-independent) portfolio risk index for a global private investor.