Prediction Markets

The Event Clock: Identifying Physical Information from State Prices

How much of the price variation ahead of a scheduled event reflects genuine learning rather than valuation shocks? Three prediction-market venues identify the learning-spanned …

michael-hanke
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Learning Before Scheduled Events: Prediction Markets, State Prices, and Option Valuation featured image

Learning Before Scheduled Events: Prediction Markets, State Prices, and Option Valuation

Options spanning a scheduled event are priced from observed event-clock inputs, with sequential overidentification restrictions tested on the Brexit referendum and on 2024 U.S. …

michael-hanke
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