How much of the price variation ahead of a scheduled event reflects genuine learning rather than valuation shocks? Three prediction-market venues identify the learning-spanned …
Large language models are used to score populist rhetoric and four dimensions of liberalism across party manifestos, showing that right-wing populist anti-liberalism is largely …
Replication and extension of Stöckl & Rode (2021) examining how populist electoral success affects option-implied risk assessments. Forthcoming in the Edward Elgar Handbook on …
Using market prices to measure how political events and populist electoral shifts are priced into equities, volatility, and cross-country asset returns.
Options spanning a scheduled event are priced from observed event-clock inputs, with sequential overidentification restrictions tested on the Brexit referendum and on 2024 U.S. …
We examine the effect of populism on financial markets around national elections. We find that the electoral success of populist parties has a direct impact on volatility in major …