election portfolios

Election Portfolios - The Case of the 2020 US Presidential Election

We use our election portfolios to analyze various Trump and Biden Stocks, as well as Industries and Investment Funds with regard to their properties.

Recovering Election Winner Probabilities from Stock Prices

Based on the sensitivity of stocks to changes in winning probabilities observed before the election, we show how the stock market’s assessment of the unobserved postelection winning probabilities can be backed out from stock prices.

Political Event Portfolios

Research data, plots and information regarding the 2020 US presidential election.