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Risk-Adjusting Forecasts for Increased Portfolio Performance

This paper decomposes the Sharpe-ratio gap — the performance cost of estimation error in mean-variance investing — into a mean-forecast error (RAFE) and a precision-alignment error …

lukas-salcher
Are There Fences in the Global Factor Zoo? featured image

Are There Fences in the Global Factor Zoo?

Regional and global factor momentum signals outperform local factors in forecasting risk premiums and revitalize momentum investing in less-integrated markets like Japan.

merlin-bartel
Less Is More: Ranking Information, Estimation Errors and Optimal Portfolios featured image

Less Is More: Ranking Information, Estimation Errors and Optimal Portfolios

We offer a novel approach that aims at mitigating the crippling effects that parameter uncertainty and estimation errors have on the out-of-sample perforance of mean-variance …

lukas-salcher
Factor Chasing and the Cross-Country Factor Momentum Anomaly featured image

Factor Chasing and the Cross-Country Factor Momentum Anomaly

We document a cross-country factor momentum anomaly, which we term 'Factor Chasing'. Specialized style mutual funds chase factor returns across countries, but their trades are …

pedro-barroso
Event Risk Premia and Non-Convex Volatility Smiles featured image

Event Risk Premia and Non-Convex Volatility Smiles

We analyze event risk premia in an expected utility framework and provide closed-form solutions under both quadratic and power utility for four different cases: …

michael-hanke
Breaking Bad: Parameter Uncertainty Caused by Structural Breaks in Stocks featured image

Breaking Bad: Parameter Uncertainty Caused by Structural Breaks in Stocks

This paper introduces break-age, a novel measure for parameter uncertainty caused by structural breaks, and demonstrates its significance in stock pricing.

lukas-salcher
Estimating Crypto-Related Risk: Market-Based Evidence from FTX's Failure and Its Contagion on U.S. Banks featured image

Estimating Crypto-Related Risk: Market-Based Evidence from FTX's Failure and Its Contagion on U.S. Banks

We estimate crypto-related risk for U.S. banks using historical covariance with bitcoin returns, focusing on contagion from FTX's failure.

lukas-muller

Diversifying Estimation Errors with Unsupervised Machine Learning

Unsupervised ML clustering of assets into equally weighted sub-portfolios dominates both plug-in minimum variance and equally weighted benchmarks, with optimal cluster count around …

merlin-bartel

Survivorship and Delisting Bias in Cryptocurrency Markets

Correcting for survivorship and delisting bias substantially overturns published cryptocurrency anomaly evidence: size is overstated, while momentum and market beta no longer price …

manuel-ammann