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Recovering Election Winner Probabilities from Stock Prices

Based on the sensitivity of stocks to changes in winning probabilities observed before the election, we show how the stock market’s assessment of the unobserved postelection winning probabilities can be backed out from stock prices.

Parameter Uncertainty, Financial Turbulence and Aggregate Stock Returns

In this paper, we develop a novel, intuitive and objective measure of time-varying parameter uncertainty (PU) based on a simple statistical test.

The Price of Populism

We examine the effect of populism on financial markets around national elections.

Turbulence in the Cross-Section: Predicting Factor Premia

We show that parameter uncertainty based on the turbulence withing each cross-section of factor portfolios produces a significant out-of-sample forecast for six out of seven tested Fama-French risk factors.

Towards a Well-Founded Valuation of Managerial Flexibilities in IT Investment Projects - A Multidisciplinary Literature Review

Based on a multidisciplinary literature review, we discuss the assumptions implicit in the prevalent Black-Scholes model and argue for relaxed assumptions that better represent characteristics of uncertain IT projects.